Continuity for Santos

Juan Manuel Santos, elected President of Colombia

Last June 20th, Juan Manuel Santos Calderon was elected President of the Republic of Colombia with the highest voting ever obtained by a candidate. More than nine million votes backed up Santos to keep on with Uribe’s policies, and the candidate for the Party of the U (created in 2005 to honor Uribe) will take charge next August 7.

As it has been a constant in Colombian elections, the abstentionism dull the polls, where more than 29 million citizens were registered to vote, but only 44% went to do so. It was a Sunday where the rain appeared early morning and lasted until Monday’s dawn, and off course the World Cup did its own, in a country passionate about football-soccer, specially with the game between Brazil and Côte d’Ivoire.

For the third time, Colombia elects a president on second round since that measure was taken by the Constitution of 1991; in 1994, liberal Ernesto Samper won over conservative Andres Pastrana, and in 1998, Pastrana triumphed over liberal Horacio Serpa. Uribe was elected both times on first round.

National unity prevailed over change

There is no doubt that elected president’s discourse about national unity, caught on all “uribistas” sectors and some opponents, imposed over the promise to change the way politics are done, made by Green Party candidate Antanas Mockus.

During the weeks previous to the ballotage, Santos devoted his time to attract all other political parties to his campaign, from “uribistas” like the Conservative Party, the defeated on first round candidate and Uribe’s coalition dissident German Vargas Lleras, and opponents to Uribe’s government, like some militants of the Liberal Party.

“I assume office with a huge sense of historical responsibility and compromise with our motherland, because Colombians have gave me that honor. The clock of our history now shows there is a new time: the time for the national unity”, assured Santos on his acceptance speech, which took place at the Campin Coliseum in front of hundreds of followers.

Is it a victory for Uribe?

If there were to pick a winner it would be Alvaro Uribe. Probably if he would have had the chance to run for a new reelection, he would have won it. Since the Supreme Court declared invalid another reform to the Constitution to allow a third mandate of the president, the political forces in Colombia split up between those who wanted to continue his government approaches and the opponents.

Without any doubt, and just as Santos recognized on his Sunday’s speech, he owes his triumph to the current president. When the electoral campaign began on March, Uribe’s candidate was his former Minister of Agriculture, Andres Felipe Arias from the Conservative Party. Despite being involved in corruption scandals, Arias was a firm candidate over Noemi Sanin, who finally represented such party after an internal voting. She assured she would continue with Uribe’s approaches.

Then, Colombia had nine options to choose from, six of them with real possibilities. Three out of those six had some tendencies similar to those of Uribe’s: Sanin, Juan Manuel Santos and German Vargas Lleras, who also “flirted” with liberal candidate Rafael Pardo. On the other hand, Gustavo Petro from the left-wing party, the Democratic Pole, was a solid opponent to Uribe’s government and was the best out of all during the debates. Far from this discussion was Antanas Mockus, the candidate nobody gave anything for in the beginning. He ended up representing a large group of Colombians who disliked the way politics is done in the country, some “uribistas” and some not. His most important strategy was the use of new media and technology, similar to what Obama did on the U.S, which caught the attention of new voters, and made Mockus enter the top 10 most liked politicians on Facebook.

For the runoff-voting competition, the two other Uribe’s affiliates (Sanin and Vargas) and some liberals joined Santos, leaving Mockus with only one alliance option, Petro, the left-wing candidate. Different to what many think, Mockus is a right-wing philosopher and rejected any link to the Democratic Pole leader.

Even though, Santos won with a huge margin supported by Uribe’s political force, there is a hard task in hand for him. The national unity means he is going to call every political wing to join his government, even those who dislike Uribe. An example of such condition was the over the phone dispute between Uribe and former president – and opponent to the current government – Cesar Gaviria, when he said he was going to vote for Santos. Immediately, Uribe called Gaviria an opportunist, and the liberal former president responded that the current government was sickening. The dilemma is now for Santos. How is he going to join forces for his national unity? How are Uribe and his loyal followers going to react, when Santos rejects any proposal from the president?

One of the most read columnists in Colombia and Mockus follower, Daniel Samper Ospina twitted on June 17: “Definitely, the only incentive to stay in Colombia is to see how Santos turns his back on Uribe and sells him off…”.

What is going to happen with Uribe, his followers and Mockus?

There are those in Colombia who think Uribe will take charge of the Party of the U so he can influence the new government, others say he is to become Santos’ advisor, and there are some rumors he wants to be Major of Bogota. But there is no doubt at all that Uribe won’t be apart of Colombian politics, because just as himself said, he’s going to take care of his “three eggs for prosperity”: national security, foreign investment and social policy.

Those who elected Santos (aka Uribe’s continuity) and specially the ones who lead many political groups, will now be on waiting line for participation on Santos’ period. On German Vargas Lleras’ side, is said that Santos already offered him the Ministry of Defense. Meanwhile, opponents to Uribe but supporters of Santos, like Cesar Gaviria, are expected to have a protagonist role on his government.

Some analysts assure that the national unity will become a bureaucracy and a position share-out, to have everyone smiling; this could be favorable or not, depending on how Santos handles it. Mockus declared on this matter “We are afraid to have a new National Front”, when the Liberal and Conservative Parties agreed to let the opposite party govern the country during terms of four years, between 1958 and 1974. That regime brought with it, among other consequences, the creation of the extinct guerrilla group M-19.

Antanas Mockus said on his defeat-recognition speech that he wished Santos the very best, and “a new and independent force is being consolidated: the Green Party”. According to Mockus, it will be a proactive opposition, which will “support the good and reject the unlawful and inconvenient” for Colombia.

Needless to say, the future of both, the Party of the U and the Green Party, is uncertain. The biggest challenge of the now government party is to keep on as a political force with its own and unique ideas, far apart from Uribe. The Green Party’s position has to be, as acknowledged by its leader, to position seeking for mayoralties and governorates throughout the country, so the three million and a half votes that Mockus conquered, are not left behind on the electoral card.